| Post Flop Probabilities Part 1 |
The last couple of articles concerned pre-flop probabilities. These are most relevant to NLH tournament play. This is because most chip movement occurs pre-flop in NLH tourneys, whereas, with Limit Hold 'em and Pot Limit Omaha, most of the action takes place post flop. The next couple of articles discuss post flop odds and probabilities. These are equally interesting to the NLH player, but they will have less opportunity and situations to take advantage of this knowledge.
Possibly the most useful probabilities are those surrounding a flush draw. If you hold two cards of the same suit, you will flop a made flush slightly less than 1% of the time. If you are all-in before the flop, the chances of completing your flush with all five cards are somewhere around 6%. More useful though is the situation when you flop four to your flush: two hearts in your hand with two hearts on the flop, or one heart in your hand with three on the flop.
Poker Odds Calculator is a Texas Hold'em, and Omaha Poker odds calculator.Odds will be generated by either a simulation (approximation) or full calculation. Post flop 'outs' are calculated for. The poker odds calculators on CardPlayer.com let you run any scenario that you see at the poker table, see your odds and outs, and cover the math of winning and losing poker hands. Texas Hold'em Omaha. Conversion Calculator Poker Odds Chart Instructions About Chances of catching 1 of N outs post flop. Note: No need to memorize this table, these percentages can be estimated rather easily. Multiply outs x 4 to estimate catching on the turn or river, and multiply outs x 2 to estimate catching exactly on the turn or exactly on the river.
Many NLH players will commit their whole stack heads up in this situation, but the odds say that really you shouldn't. You will only complete the flush around 35% of the time. So if a player has moved all-in, in front of you, for a large bet of greater than pot size, the correct play is probably to pass. You are not getting good pot odds. You will often see players making bad calls in this situation. It is of course different if you move all-in first to speak. You may only win the pot a third of the time if someone calls, but of course you may win the pot 50% of the time, uncontested, if everyone should pass.
In Limit Hold 'em of course, you will rarely win the pot uncontested, but the Pot Odds will be different. In many ways Limit Hold 'em is much more complicated here. In a $2/$4 game, four players may have seen the flop. The player in front of you bets $2 on the flop, and you can easily justify the pot odds as you are now calling $2 against a $10 pot. However, there are variables to consider: how much more you may have to call to see the final two cards, and how much more can you win if you hit the flush. Firstly, a player may raise behind you and the original bettor may re-raise. Now you are risking $6 against $20. The odds aren't as good but are still favourable. But of course, the flush may not arrive on the turn, and you may have to call another $4. Now the risk is $10 against $28, or possibly $10 against$24 if play becomes heads up. You are in fact still getting pot odds, but only just. The second variable is of course when you hit the flush, how much will you get paid? If the player will call a $4 bet on the end, or better still, a two bet situation may emerge, .
Remembering all these situations and odds isn't as hard as it initially looks. You will constantly hear players refer to 'outs'. A flush draw is 9 outs. If you have an open ended straight draw, you have 8 outs. Most top players just count their outs, and know the probabilities of hitting these outs. Next weeks article will include the 'outs' table and further explanation.
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News
2012-03-11- Updated to version 1.0.12
2012-02-28
- Updated to version 1.0.11
2012-02-15
- Updated to version 0.0.10
Summary
Poker Odds Calculator is a free odds calculator of various poker games including Texas Hold'em Poker and Omaha Poker.Now post flop 'outs' are calculated for each player.
There are no known bugs with this poker calculator. Please email me if you find anything.
Features:
* Calculates odds for Texas Hold'em Poker and Omaha Poker. More game types coming soon
* Input any combination of player cards and board/community cards to calculate the odds of winning, tying, and losing
* Depending on the number of unknowns, either a full enumeration(exact odds) or a Monte Carlo simulation(approximation) will be ran to calculate the odds
* Adjustable threshold setting for using Monte Carlo simulations vs full enumeration
* Can calculate odds for 2 - 9 players
* Discard up to 5 cards(exposed cards)
* Displays an adjustable margin of error for Monte Carlo simulations
* Displays each player's post flop 'outs'
* Support for tablet devices
* Ported key parts of the calculation algorithm to C++ for major speed improvements
* full version
* free
* Install to SD card
Permissions:
INTERNET (admob)
ACCESS_NETWORK_STATE (admob)
keywords: probability, combination, permutation, calculator, calc, odds, poker, no limit, pot limit, hold-em, holdem, Texas hold'em, Texas holdem, Omaha, hi/low, enumeration, enum, monte carlo, simulation, free, accurate, accuracy, mult-player, tablet, tablets, poker evaluator, poker calculator, free poker, sd card, memory card, external, outs, post flop outs
Changelog
Version 1.0.12* Added post flop 'outs' calculation(Each player's outs will be displayed post flop if all other players' cards are known)
Version 1.0.11
* Enabled 'move to SD card' feature
* Added a button to access future applications
Version 0.0.10
* Fixed a minor bug introduced in v0.0.8
Version 0.0.9
* Fixed Omaha calculations bug introduced in v0.0.8 (Thanks Craig for pointing it out!)
Version 0.0.8
* More speed improvements
* Added a green felt table background
Version 0.0.7
* Major speed improvements(2-4X faster)
* Changed the image on the back of the cards
* Updated the about screen
Version 0.0.6
* Fixed bug in Omaha enumeration calculations
* Adjusted the margin of error calculation
Version 0.0.5
Post Flop Poker Odds Calculator Chart
* Added Omaha Poker calculations
Version 0.0.7
* Major speed improvements(2-4X faster)
* Changed the image on the back of the cards
* Updated the about screen
Version 0.0.6
* Fixed bug in Omaha enumeration calculations
* Adjusted the margin of error calculation
Version 0.0.5
Post Flop Poker Odds Calculator Chart
* Added Omaha Poker calculations* Redesigned the GUI to support tablet devices
* Added speed improvements
Version 0.0.4
* Added odds calculations for up to 9 players
* Added a discard pile
* Show approximate margin of error for Monte Carlo simulations
* Fixed bug with Monte Carlo simulation never finishing when the sample size was very big
Version 0.0.3
* Added odds calculations for more players(2 to 6)
* Fixed GUI issues
Version 0.0.2
* Added an accuracy setting to speed up calculations on slow devices
* Minor bug fixes
Post Flop Poker Odds Calculator Free
Version 0.0.1 - initial release
